Privacy‐preserving peak time forecasting with Learning to Rank XGBoost and extensive feature engineering

In modern power systems, predicting the time when peak loads will occur is crucial for improving efficiency and minimising the possibility of network sections becoming overloaded. However, most works in the load forecasting field are not focusing on a dedicated peak time forecast and are not dealing with load data privacy. At the same time, developing methods for forecasting peak electricity usage that protect customers\u27 data privacy is essential since it could encourage customers to share their energy usage data, leading to more data points for the effective management and planning of power grids. Hence, the authors employ a dedicated Learning to Rank XGBoost algorithm to forecast peak times with only ranks of loads instead of absolute load magnitudes as input data, thereby offering potential privacy-preserving properties. We show that the presented Learning to Rank XGBoost model yields comparable results to a benchmark XGBoost load forecasting model. Additionally, we describe our extensive feature engineering process and a state-of-the-art Bayesian hyperparameter optimisation for selecting model parameters, which leads to a significant improvement of forecasting accuracy. Our method was used in the context of the final round of the international BigDEAL load forecasting challenge 2022, where we consistently achieved high-ranking results in the peak time track and an overall fourth rank in the peak load forecasting track with our general XGBoost model

Rahmenkonzept der Universitäten des Landes Baden-Württemberg für das High-Performance Computing (HPC) und Data-Intensive Computing (DIC) für den Zeitraum 2025 bis 2032

Digitale Infrastrukturen und darauf aufsetzende Dienste bilden inzwischen in fast allen Fachgebieten das Rückgrat wissenschaftlicher Forschung. Deshalb muss die strategische Zielsetzung eines HPCKonzepts klare Antworten auf eine Vielzahl von Problemstellungen finden. Dazu zählen die stetige Zunahme digitaler Workflows, bedingt beispielsweise durch die Verbesserung des Instrumentariums in den Naturwissenschaften, neue Forschungsansätze in den Digital Humanities, die Verfeinerung der Auflösung in bildgebenden Verfahren, aber auch der zunehmende Einsatz Künstlicher Intelligenz in immer breiteren Anwendungsfeldern. Öffentlich geförderte und betriebene Forschungsinfrastrukturen sind hier von entscheidender Bedeutung. Föderierte Strukturen erzeugen Synergien und haben klare strategische Vorteile gegenüber vereinzelten Insellösungen, insbesondere im Bereich High-Performance-Computing/Data Intensive Computing (HPC-DIC). Daher müssen sie im Interesse der Nutzenden auf der lange etablierten Basis verlässlich, zukunftssicher und nachhaltig weiterentwickelt werden. Im Sinne des Wissenschafts- und Wirtschaftsstandorts Baden-Württemberg sollen sie eine für Menschen gemachte Digitalisierung voranbringen, moderne technische Entwicklungen mitgestalten, zusätzliche Kreativität freisetzen, und nicht zuletzt die breite Verteilung von Kompetenzen unterstützen. Basierend auf internationalen Standards sind digitale Dienste auf allen Ebenen (lokal, regional, national und international) geeignet zu vernetzen. Um den Standort Baden-Württemberg weiter attraktiv für Forscher, Entwickler und Dienstleister auszubauen, ist dies eine unverzichtbare Voraussetzung. Die Hochschulen im Land müssen sich im Hinblick auf die Anwerbung von IT-Fachkräften zu einem begehrten Arbeitgeber weiterentwickeln

Dormancy within Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilms : a transcriptomic analysis by RNA-seq

The proportion of dormant bacteria within Staphylococcus epidermidis biofilms may determine its inflammatory profile. Previously, we have shown that S. epidermidis biofilms with higher proportions of dormant bacteria have reduced activation of murine macrophages. RNA-sequencing was used to identify the major transcriptomic differences between S. epidermidis biofilms with different proportions of dormant bacteria. To accomplish this goal, we used an in vitro model where magnesium allowed modulation of the proportion of dormant bacteria within S. epidermidis biofilms. Significant differences were found in the expression of 147 genes. A detailed analysis of the results was performed based on direct and functional gene interactions. Biological processes among the differentially expressed genes were mainly related to oxidation-reduction processes and acetyl-CoA metabolic processes. Gene set enrichment revealed that the translation process is related to the proportion of dormant bacteria. Transcription of mRNAs involved in oxidation-reduction processes was associated with higher proportions of dormant bacteria within S. epidermidis biofilm. Moreover, the pH of the culture medium did not change after the addition of magnesium, and genes related to magnesium transport did not seem to impact entrance of bacterial cells into dormancy.The authors thank Stephen Lorry at Harvard Medical School for providing CLC Genomics software. This work was funded by Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT) and COMPETE grants PTDC/BIA-MIC/113450/2009, FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-014309, FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-022718 (FCT PEst-C/SAU/LA0002/2011), QOPNA research unit (project PEst-C/QUI/UI0062/2011), and CENTRO-07-ST24-FEDER-002034. The following authors had an individual FCT fellowship: VC (SFRH/BD/78235/2011) and AF (2SFRH/BD/62359/2009)

Omics and multi-omics analysis for the early identification and improved outcome of patients with psoriatic arthritis

The definitive diagnosis and early treatment of many immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) is hindered by variable and overlapping clinical manifestations. Psoriatic arthritis (PsA), which develops in ~30% of people with psoriasis, is a key example. This mixed-pattern IMID is apparent in entheseal and synovial musculoskeletal structures, but a definitive diagnosis often can only be made by clinical experts or when an extensive progressive disease state is apparent. As with other IMIDs, the detection of multimodal molecular biomarkers offers some hope for the early diagnosis of PsA and the initiation of effective management and treatment strategies. However, specific biomarkers are not yet available for PsA. The assessment of new markers by genomic and epigenomic profiling, or the analysis of blood and synovial fluid/tissue samples using proteomics, metabolomics and lipidomics, provides hope that complex molecular biomarker profiles could be developed to diagnose PsA. Importantly, the integration of these markers with high-throughput histology, imaging and standardized clinical assessment data provides an important opportunity to develop molecular profiles that could improve the diagnosis of PsA, predict its occurrence in cohorts of individuals with psoriasis, differentiate PsA from other IMIDs, and improve therapeutic responses. In this review, we consider the technologies that are currently deployed in the EU IMI2 project HIPPOCRATES to define biomarker profiles specific for PsA and discuss the advantages of combining multi-omics data to improve the outcome of PsA patients

Second asymptomatic carotid surgery trial (ACST-2): a randomised comparison of carotid artery stenting versus carotid endarterectomy

Background: Among asymptomatic patients with severe carotid artery stenosis but no recent stroke or transient cerebral ischaemia, either carotid artery stenting (CAS) or carotid endarterectomy (CEA) can restore patency and reduce long-term stroke risks. However, from recent national registry data, each option causes about 1% procedural risk of disabling stroke or death. Comparison of their long-term protective effects requires large-scale randomised evidence. Methods: ACST-2 is an international multicentre randomised trial of CAS versus CEA among asymptomatic patients with severe stenosis thought to require intervention, interpreted with all other relevant trials. Patients were eligible if they had severe unilateral or bilateral carotid artery stenosis and both doctor and patient agreed that a carotid procedure should be undertaken, but they were substantially uncertain which one to choose. Patients were randomly allocated to CAS or CEA and followed up at 1 month and then annually, for a mean 5 years. Procedural events were those within 30 days of the intervention. Intention-to-treat analyses are provided. Analyses including procedural hazards use tabular methods. Analyses and meta-analyses of non-procedural strokes use Kaplan-Meier and log-rank methods. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN21144362. Findings: Between Jan 15, 2008, and Dec 31, 2020, 3625 patients in 130 centres were randomly allocated, 1811 to CAS and 1814 to CEA, with good compliance, good medical therapy and a mean 5 years of follow-up. Overall, 1% had disabling stroke or death procedurally (15 allocated to CAS and 18 to CEA) and 2% had non-disabling procedural stroke (48 allocated to CAS and 29 to CEA). Kaplan-Meier estimates of 5-year non-procedural stroke were 2·5% in each group for fatal or disabling stroke, and 5·3% with CAS versus 4·5% with CEA for any stroke (rate ratio [RR] 1·16, 95% CI 0·86–1·57; p=0·33). Combining RRs for any non-procedural stroke in all CAS versus CEA trials, the RR was similar in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients (overall RR 1·11, 95% CI 0·91–1·32; p=0·21). Interpretation: Serious complications are similarly uncommon after competent CAS and CEA, and the long-term effects of these two carotid artery procedures on fatal or disabling stroke are comparable. Funding: UK Medical Research Council and Health Technology Assessment Programme

Reduction in saturated fat intake for cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND: Reducing saturated fat reduces serum cholesterol, but effects on other intermediate outcomes may be less clear. Additionally, it is unclear whether the energy from saturated fats eliminated from the diet are more helpfully replaced by polyunsaturated fats, monounsaturated fats, carbohydrate or protein. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of reducing saturated fat intake and replacing it with carbohydrate (CHO), polyunsaturated (PUFA), monounsaturated fat (MUFA) and/or protein on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity, using all available randomised clinical trials. SEARCH METHODS: We updated our searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (Ovid) and Embase (Ovid) on 15 October 2019, and searched Clinicaltrials.gov and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) on 17 October 2019. SELECTION CRITERIA: Included trials fulfilled the following criteria: 1) randomised; 2) intention to reduce saturated fat intake OR intention to alter dietary fats and achieving a reduction in saturated fat; 3) compared with higher saturated fat intake or usual diet; 4) not multifactorial; 5) in adult humans with or without cardiovascular disease (but not acutely ill, pregnant or breastfeeding); 6) intervention duration at least 24 months; 7) mortality or cardiovascular morbidity data available. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed inclusion, extracted study data and assessed risk of bias. We performed random-effects meta-analyses, meta-regression, subgrouping, sensitivity analyses, funnel plots and GRADE assessment. MAIN RESULTS: We included 15 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) (16 comparisons, ~59,000 participants), that used a variety of interventions from providing all food to advice on reducing saturated fat. The included long-term trials suggested that reducing dietary saturated fat reduced the risk of combined cardiovascular events by 21% (risk ratio (RR) 0.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 0.93, 11 trials, 53,300 participants of whom 8% had a cardiovascular event, I² = 65%, GRADE moderate-quality evidence). Meta-regression suggested that greater reductions in saturated fat (reflected in greater reductions in serum cholesterol) resulted in greater reductions in risk of CVD events, explaining most heterogeneity between trials. The number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) was 56 in primary prevention trials, so 56 people need to reduce their saturated fat intake for ~four years for one person to avoid experiencing a CVD event. In secondary prevention trials, the NNTB was 32. Subgrouping did not suggest significant differences between replacement of saturated fat calories with polyunsaturated fat or carbohydrate, and data on replacement with monounsaturated fat and protein was very limited. We found little or no effect of reducing saturated fat on all-cause mortality (RR 0.96; 95% CI 0.90 to 1.03; 11 trials, 55,858 participants) or cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.80 to 1.12, 10 trials, 53,421 participants), both with GRADE moderate-quality evidence. There was little or no effect of reducing saturated fats on non-fatal myocardial infarction (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.07) or CHD mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.16, both low-quality evidence), but effects on total (fatal or non-fatal) myocardial infarction, stroke and CHD events (fatal or non-fatal) were all unclear as the evidence was of very low quality. There was little or no effect on cancer mortality, cancer diagnoses, diabetes diagnosis, HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides or blood pressure, and small reductions in weight, serum total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and BMI. There was no evidence of harmful effects of reducing saturated fat intakes. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this updated review suggest that reducing saturated fat intake for at least two years causes a potentially important reduction in combined cardiovascular events. Replacing the energy from saturated fat with polyunsaturated fat or carbohydrate appear to be useful strategies, while effects of replacement with monounsaturated fat are unclear. The reduction in combined cardiovascular events resulting from reducing saturated fat did not alter by study duration, sex or baseline level of cardiovascular risk, but greater reduction in saturated fat caused greater reductions in cardiovascular events

Effects of Anacetrapib in Patients with Atherosclerotic Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: Patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk for cardiovascular events despite effective statin-based treatment of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels. The inhibition of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) by anacetrapib reduces LDL cholesterol levels and increases high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels. However, trials of other CETP inhibitors have shown neutral or adverse effects on cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 30,449 adults with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive atorvastatin therapy and who had a mean LDL cholesterol level of 61 mg per deciliter (1.58 mmol per liter), a mean non-HDL cholesterol level of 92 mg per deciliter (2.38 mmol per liter), and a mean HDL cholesterol level of 40 mg per deciliter (1.03 mmol per liter). The patients were assigned to receive either 100 mg of anacetrapib once daily (15,225 patients) or matching placebo (15,224 patients). The primary outcome was the first major coronary event, a composite of coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization. RESULTS: During the median follow-up period of 4.1 years, the primary outcome occurred in significantly fewer patients in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (1640 of 15,225 patients [10.8%] vs. 1803 of 15,224 patients [11.8%]; rate ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.85 to 0.97; P=0.004). The relative difference in risk was similar across multiple prespecified subgroups. At the trial midpoint, the mean level of HDL cholesterol was higher by 43 mg per deciliter (1.12 mmol per liter) in the anacetrapib group than in the placebo group (a relative difference of 104%), and the mean level of non-HDL cholesterol was lower by 17 mg per deciliter (0.44 mmol per liter), a relative difference of -18%. There were no significant between-group differences in the risk of death, cancer, or other serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease who were receiving intensive statin therapy, the use of anacetrapib resulted in a lower incidence of major coronary events than the use of placebo. (Funded by Merck and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN48678192 ; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01252953 ; and EudraCT number, 2010-023467-18 .)

Brand politics as a competition instrument in sports : an empirical analysis of theoretical concepts in brand leadership, in application of the professional football on the example of FC Bayern Munich

Die Intention dieser Arbeit besteht darin, die theoretischen Aspekte der Markenführung genauer zu beleuchten. Der Fokus wird dabei auf die Frage gelegt, ob es möglich ist, die wichtigsten Teile der Markenführung im professionellen Fußball anwenden zu können. Die vorliegende Ausführung beschäftigt sich mit den zentralen Fragestellungen, wie eine Marke definiert werden kann und wie sich der professionelle Sportmarkt und im Speziellen auch der Fußball entwickelt. Außerdem werden wichtige Begriffe der Markenführung, wie die Positionierung, das Branding, das Sponsoring und das operative und strategische Marketing des FC Bayern analysiert. Die vorliegende Forschungsfrage wird zum einen mit der Hilfe von Sekundärliteratur beantwortet. Die Argumentation basiert u. a. auf Werke über das Management im Allgemeinen und außerdem speziell auf den Sport angewandte Literatur. Des Weiteren, verwendet der Autor zahlreiche aktuelle Studien zum Thema „Marken“, um seine Thesen zu belegen. Die Arbeit zeigt, dass es für ein erfolgreiches Sportunternehmen notwendig ist, sich professionell mit den einzelnen Themen der Markenpolitik auseinanderzusetzen, um sich gegenüber der Konkurrenz abheben zu können. Es ist deutlich erkennbar, dass Vereine mit einer eigenständigen Positionierung, wie beispielsweise der FC Bayern, einen hohen sportlichen und wirtschaftlichen Erfolg aufweisen. Dennoch hat auch dieses Sportunternehmen noch einige Defizite in der Umsetzung der Markenpositionierung und dem Auftreten der einzelnen Organe, welche verbessert werden können. Anschließend werden die Ergebnisse der Analyse zusammengefasst, ausgewertet und interpretiert. Diese Arbeit leistet einen Beitrag zum professionellen Management in Fußballunternehmen und wendet die Ergebnisse fundierter Literatur an einem Praxisbeispiel an